Tag Archives: Fradulent Elections

Guatemala and Nicaragua’s Elections: What’s Next?

2 Dec

Otto Perez Molina of Guatemala

Otto Perez Molina of Guatemala

Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua

Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua

Guatemala and Nicaragua are two Central American countries that have painful pasts. Guatemala had a thirty-six year civil war and Nicaragua also experienced a civil war and dictatorship. Both are currently faced with extreme poverty and violence. In early November both countries held controversial elections which resulted in controversial results.

In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega was running for reelection, which does not seem out of the norm, except for the fact that he was running for a third term, which is illegal according to the Nicaraguan Constitution. In late 2009, the Supreme Court decided that the Constitutional ban on reelection did not apply to Ortega. Call it a coincidence if you like, but only the judges of the Sandinista party, Ortega’s party, were told of the session. The other three judges were replaced by Sandinista replacement judges when they did not appear, because they were never told. The other judges said that they feel powerless, that the Sandinistas control everything and there is nothing they can do. Many say that the decision should have been taken to Congress because it deals with Constitutional re-form, but to no surprise Ortega said the ruling was unchangeable.

The Guatemalan elections also started out with high levels of controversy and dispute when the First Lady, Sandra Torres, ran for President in March. However, close relatives of the President are constitutionally not allowed to run for president, so days after entering the race the First Lady filed for divorce. Torres argued that the divorce was not a political move but the Guatemalan public was not convinced. In late July, the Guatemalan Supreme Court voted against the First Lady’s bid stating that “legal fraud” was committed. The First Lady argued that not allowing her to run was violating her human rights, but the Court stuck to its vote. With Torres out of the running this left Manuel Baldizón, a wealthy businessman, and Otto Perez Molina, a retired right-wing general, as the frontrunners.

In early November it was announced that President Ortega won the election in Nicaragua. It seemed perhaps voters were pleased with Ortega’s efforts to stimulate the economy, most notably his partnership with Venezuela which brings $400 million loans each year to Nicaragua. Ortega has set up social programs during his presidency and helped citizens gain legal titles to their land. Despite all of this however, before the elections even concluded there were accusations of fraud. The opposition party accused Ortega’s party of denying identification cards to citizens opposed to the government, but granting them to Honduran citizens. Supporters of Fabio Gadea, Ortega’s opponent accused Ortega’s party of stuffing ballot boxes and preventing Ortega opposers from voting. There were also several reports that polling stations were burned in the north and central provinces. The Organization of American States said that its election monitors were kept out of polling stations. When Ortega’s victory was announced crowds took to the street in protest, it was not long before protesters and Ortega supporters clashed and four people were reported dead as a result. Ortega and his supporters continue to call him the victor as civil society organizations call for investigations into the election.

Also in early November, Guatemalan voters showed that they favored the ‘mano dura’ and voted Otto Perez Molina for president. Political scientists were taken back a bit by the popularity of Perez, a retired general from a brutal and long civil war. Did Guatemalans really want a strong military leader as president only fifteen years after the three decade long war had ended? A war in which the military killed, tortured and raped the citizens; and now human rights groups fight to charge these former military leaders and bring them to justice. Perez’s role in the war has never been fully investigated, although he denies involvement in the massacres. Why would Guatemala want a former military leader whose campaign declares him the ‘iron fist’? Perhaps it is because more than sixty percent of registered voters are between the ages of 18-30, for them the brutal civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans is a shadow of the past. Guatemala’s failing education system does not teach about the country’s civil war. The majority of registered voters don’t remember the brutal genocide conducted by the military, what they are concerned with is the violence which now plagues the country. They perceive their war is against crime, drug cartels that have taken over the country and control northern border towns. Violence attributed to Mexican drug cartels is on a steady rise and many police officials and politicians are on the cartel’s payroll. Perez’s solution is a forceful one similar to Mexico’s Calderon’s failing drug war. While experts say that Guatemala’s solution should be police reform, a stronger justice system and a security tax on the rich. The public is eager for a quicker solution which Perez seems to be promising.

So what lies ahead for these two countries? Nicaragua will continue to see both citizens and NGOs call for investigation into the election. Ortega’s government will most likely feign investigation but will remain in power. Ortega will probably keep his popularity among his loyal supporters. My prediction is that we will see left-leaning Ortega become more and more like his ally, Hugo Chavez, as he will most likely continue to ignore democracy as it provides his prohibitions and take sole control over Nicaragua. Guatemala will probably not see the decline in drug cartels with el ‘malo dura’. If Perez takes the violent approach to drug cartels like he’s promised, battling them with military we will most likely see the same results we are seeing with Calderon’s drug war, steady flow of violence and civilian murders as the cartels stay in the country. For someone who has studied Guatemala’s civil war extensively I sincerely hope that Guatemala does not go into another war if the military gets too powerful and corrupt once again. But, it is not certain with a President who has been accused in human rights abuses and most likely had a hand in the genocide of the civil war. It has been speculated that Guatemala will see human rights and civil liberties threatened as the government takes a forceful approach to drug violence. One thing is for certain, the political action in these countries is just beginning and the world needs to keep a careful eye on these Presidents.